How to pick the Grand National winner

Grand National Winner 2013

It's nearly the day we have all been waiting for, Grand National day, so put on your hats and let's dance!!!

Mr Hulmes has backed and laid the first 10 in the market and is green on all, I think he stands to win at least 37p whoever wins. Sensational stuff H!!.

Firstly remember that bookies give great offers online to punters every day of the year except 1. Yes you've guessed it Grand National Day. The offers are all taken down on the busiest day of the year, no, I don't understand it either! So I've put this blog up early so you can all help yourself to the offers.

Right, down to business, I love to use the stats to help me find the winner. The race has changed a lot in recent times and I've had to adjust my stats accordingly, but as someone once told me, never be afraid of throwing away your babies (don't panic ladies, not literally!). So some adjustments have had to be made, not least by looking at the race from a 5 year perspective and not a 10 year one.

So what is the profile of a recent Grand National Winner:

I've put together 8 stats that applied to all 5 winners:

1. Aged 9 to 11 - these make up over 60% of the field normally so not unexpected.

2. Rated between 138 and 157 – this has been the biggest change. The last 3 winners were all rated 150 plus, leading to an average of 149 in the last 5 years. Prior to that, it was roughly 140. So may be we are looking for classier horses than we did previously.

Applying these gives us a list of 29 horses from What a Friend to Mr Moonshine

So next we look at stats 3 and 4.

3. Ran 3 to 6 times this season – freshness but also fitness is imperative. At this point we lose some fancied horses: Seabass, On His Own, Cappa Bleu and Sunnyhill Boy amongst others

4. Ran this calendar year – in fact no longer than 75 days prior to the race – this accounts for Balthazar King and Lion Na Bernais.

So after stats 3 and 4, we are left with 20 horses on the list.

Next is a couple of stamina stats:

5. Won a race over 3miles and more – obviously stamina is needed to win the longest race on the calendar. We lose the likes of Bob Lingo, Quiscover Fontaine and Because I Couldn't see.

6. Won a H'cap worth over 30K in a double figure field – this proves a horse's class and ability to run against big fields of seasoned performers – here we lose Teaforthree (no hcap win), ForpaddythePlasterer (no h'cap win), Joncol (no h'cap win) and Chicago Grey (no h'cap win) amongst others. Whilst that may seem churlish to throw these good horses out, I can't recall any horse winning this in recent times that hadn't won a h'cap before.

That has whittled the field down to only:

Big Fella Thanks, Roberto Goldback, Colbert Station, Tofino Bay, Wyck Hill and Rare Bob

Now on to the final 2 stats.

Experience and a good handicap mark are the last factors we bring into play.

7. Every one of the last 5 winners had run at least 12 times over fences. Over the last 10 years each winner had had at least 10 runs over fences – inexperienced horses find the Grand National too much, so we lose Colbert Station, Wyck Hill and Tofino Bay.

8. No horse in the past 5 years (or 10 years) has defied a weights rise of more than 10 lbs. This means that from their last winning mark to their Grand National mark there can be no more than 10lbs difference.

We lose none of the last 3 here.

Our final shortlist is:

Big Fella Thanks

Roberto Goldback

Rare Bob

Now of these 3 Big Fella Thanks has been here 3 times before and clearly doesn't stay the trip so I can't recommend backing him. But the other 2 are very backable.

Roberto Goldback – N. Henderson's only entry this year, got some good back form to add to his current season form. Bought by connections to win this race, he has clearly been trained with the Grand National in mind and comes here on the back of an excellent staying on 5^th in the Racing Post chase.

Rare Bob – D. Hughes has a good recent record in the race, the horse has had an easier season compared to last year and is off a good handicap mark. My only reservation with him is the fact that he was Brought Down last year and Unseated Rider at Aintree (on the Mildmay) the year before, so may be he doesn't enjoy the best of luck round here?

And just 1 more horse that I must give a mention to that fits all the stats except the ratings (137); Auroras Encore, loves April, will stay and jumps for fun.  Have an  EW bet on him at his current odds.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the day.

As my old mate Tony the Bookie says everybody have fun tonight, everybody Waichong Marwing tonight!

Cheltenham 2013 - Friday 15th March

Cheltenham 2013 – Friday 15^th March

Well, good news, Mr Hulmes has got his thermals on and is ready for action. Tony the bookie is offering evens that Mr Hulmes is down to them after racing!!

So onto the final day, not much luck so far with just a couple of ew bets landed.

Captain Sunshine ran a great race for us yesterday and those who took the 25s nearly landed a right old touch as he ended up at 11s. Nearly but no cigar.

Great run by Alfie Sherrin to get 4^th and if he gets in to the Grand National, he will be a lively type.

So onto today and the Gold Cup.

The last 10 all ran and were placed in the King George or Lexus.

This gives us a shortlist of 3 – Long Run, Captain Chris and Sir Des Champs.

Of these I have got to say that Long Run has disappointed me with his jumping. I know he won the King George last time but he should have won the Gold Cup last year and didn't. Also the stats are against a horse winning, losing and then winning the Gold Cup, as it has only been done once before.

Captain Chris was my Ante post Gold Cup selection last year and never ran so it would be galling to see him win this year, though stats wise he has a chance.

So on to Sir Des Champs – the selection – all the stats point to him being the most likely winner, he has a great 2 from 2 record at Cheltenham and has been trained with this race in mind all season.

Other bets today:

Ranjaan in the County Hurdle

Our Vinnie in the Albert Bartlett

Salsify in the Foxhunters

The end of a very long 4 days.

I'll be looking forward to my large Jds tonight and lighting up a cuban!

As always remember to protect your bets in-play and ensure you can make a profit.

Good luck

Cheltenham 2013 Thursday 14th March

Cheltenham 2013 Thursday 14^th March

Mr Hulmes has forgotten his sheepie so he has had to drive home, he probably could have skinned a polar bear that would have kept him warm eh? ha.

Well, here we go, this is the day when we hit our stride.

Stats are looking awesome and the form book is matching it, so we have a marriage from heaven.

Let's get to it:

Jewson 1.30– 2 Irish horses here AupCharlie and Texas Jack, excellent form, both jump, stay and travel and represent good value against Dynaste.

Pertemps 2.05 – Don't be afraid here to bet on more than one big priced horse. I've got 3 to get stuck into; Captain Sunshine a horse that is tailor made for this, According To Trev a novice who looks like a battler and Hada Men from an in form yard who has sneaked in at the bottom.

Ryanair 2.40 – Very strong trends race and the finger of fate points to Champion Court! The days' best bet.

World Hurdle 3.30 – Very strong again for the stats and here we find Reve De Sivola

Byrne Group Plate 4.0 – Look no further than V. Williams representative Kapga De Cerisy, in a race the trainer loves, this horse is improving fast.

Kim Muir 4.40 – Jonjo O'Neil is a master trainer of staying chasers, his 2 entries here are both course winners and both have good amateur jockeys booked so get stuck into Alfie Sherrin and Galaxy Rock

Cross Country – 5.15 Arabella Boy given on Tuesday and still the nap today.

So here we go hold on to your hats! And remember to bet in-play and protect your profits.

Good luck

Cheltenham Wednesday 14th March

Cheltenham 2013 – Wednesday 14^th March

Mr Hulmes reports that the polar bears have now eaten all the penguins on Cleeve Hill so that's a good result for them, not so good for the penguins though!

So not the greatest day yesterday but water, bridges, milk, spilled and all that!

The stats are first up again today with 2 ew wagers recommended.

Coral Cup – 4.00 pm

Tricky as ever, but never be afraid to back one at a decent price in this. The suggestion is Urbain De Sivola from the N. Williams yard that had Swincombe Flame placed at 40s yesterday. This horse has good back form, fits the trends and his trainer knows how to prepare one for Cheltenham. Its a decent price for us today.

Fred Winter Hurdle – 4.40 pm

A relatively new race and one that trends are beginning to emerge for. The selection here is Zamdy Man from the in form V. Williams yard, he ran a good race at Haydock last time, in a race that is showing up as a good guide for this race. Well bred which again is important in this race, he is also a decent price.

Ok, so form wise, it's a tough day – the 4m is not my cup of tea, the Queen Mother is all but over as the mighty Sprinter Sacre is racing and the RSA has disappointed us stats wise and so we're going to give it a wide berth.

So only 2 more races to discuss – the Neptune at 2.05pm and the Bumper at 5.15 pm

I'm a big fan of Taquin De Soleil in the Neptune but the word form Ireland is that Pont Alexandre is a superstar, still I'm sticking with Taquin.

In the Bumper, we got word about Le Vent Datan first time up and he obliged but I have a feeling that D.Pipe has 2 lively chances here so both The Liquidator and Dr. Harper should be worth a small wager. Keep stakes small today as there are a lot of imponderables.

But remember that you can always bet in-play to cover and protect – just like The Octonauts would do!

Good luck

Cheltenham 2013 - Tuesday 12th March

Cheltenham 2013 - Tuesday 12^th March

So it's the opening day of the festival and it's freezing! Not good. My good friend Mr Hulmes has reported penguins on Cleeve Hill, though that may be taking it too far.

The fields have been finally been confirmed and we can get stuck into the Stats and the form.

Firstly from a statistical point of view, there are 2 selections today.

1. White Star Line in the JLT at 2.40 pm, although it's worth mentioning that we should watch for Loch Ba and Nuts and Bolts as these fit most stats but White Star Lines previous Cheltenham Festival run just gives him the edge.
2. Arabella Boy in the Cross Country chase at 4.00 pm.

Secondly from my own perspective, I am backing 2 more Irish horses that have really caught my eye over the season.

• Un Atout in the Supreme at 1.30 pm has easily the best and most fluid action of any horse I've seen this season. He came over with a massive reputation from France and his 2 performances to date have seen him excel. He can be ridden aggressively or sit just off the pace and he represents good value at his current price. Obviously My Tent or Yours will be a warm order in this but don't forget that N Henderson has had Binocular, Sprinter Sacre and Darlan all beaten in this race before.

• Arvika Ligeonniere in the Arkle at 2.05 pm. His price is over inflated due to the presence of Simonsig and the fact he fell last time out. That was an uncharacteristic thing for him as his jumping is normally excellent. He will handle the ground, which Overturn may not, he will handle the track and his natural speed will make him a big danger to Simonsig. This will be the first time Simonsig has met such quality horses over fences, so who knows how he will cope? Therefore I would much rather take the odds about Arvika than odds on about Simonsig.

Note that, as always, you can trade in-play, with all of your bets to protect your profits.

Good luck with all your bets and remember there are 4 days to bet and we need to be in profit by Friday night!!