How to pick the Grand National winner

Grand National Winner 2013

It's nearly the day we have all been waiting for, Grand National day, so put on your hats and let's dance!!!

Mr Hulmes has backed and laid the first 10 in the market and is green on all, I think he stands to win at least 37p whoever wins. Sensational stuff H!!.

Firstly remember that bookies give great offers online to punters every day of the year except 1. Yes you've guessed it Grand National Day. The offers are all taken down on the busiest day of the year, no, I don't understand it either! So I've put this blog up early so you can all help yourself to the offers.

Right, down to business, I love to use the stats to help me find the winner. The race has changed a lot in recent times and I've had to adjust my stats accordingly, but as someone once told me, never be afraid of throwing away your babies (don't panic ladies, not literally!). So some adjustments have had to be made, not least by looking at the race from a 5 year perspective and not a 10 year one.

So what is the profile of a recent Grand National Winner:

I've put together 8 stats that applied to all 5 winners:

1. Aged 9 to 11 - these make up over 60% of the field normally so not unexpected.

2. Rated between 138 and 157 – this has been the biggest change. The last 3 winners were all rated 150 plus, leading to an average of 149 in the last 5 years. Prior to that, it was roughly 140. So may be we are looking for classier horses than we did previously.

Applying these gives us a list of 29 horses from What a Friend to Mr Moonshine

So next we look at stats 3 and 4.

3. Ran 3 to 6 times this season – freshness but also fitness is imperative. At this point we lose some fancied horses: Seabass, On His Own, Cappa Bleu and Sunnyhill Boy amongst others

4. Ran this calendar year – in fact no longer than 75 days prior to the race – this accounts for Balthazar King and Lion Na Bernais.

So after stats 3 and 4, we are left with 20 horses on the list.

Next is a couple of stamina stats:

5. Won a race over 3miles and more – obviously stamina is needed to win the longest race on the calendar. We lose the likes of Bob Lingo, Quiscover Fontaine and Because I Couldn't see.

6. Won a H'cap worth over 30K in a double figure field – this proves a horse's class and ability to run against big fields of seasoned performers – here we lose Teaforthree (no hcap win), ForpaddythePlasterer (no h'cap win), Joncol (no h'cap win) and Chicago Grey (no h'cap win) amongst others. Whilst that may seem churlish to throw these good horses out, I can't recall any horse winning this in recent times that hadn't won a h'cap before.

That has whittled the field down to only:

Big Fella Thanks, Roberto Goldback, Colbert Station, Tofino Bay, Wyck Hill and Rare Bob

Now on to the final 2 stats.

Experience and a good handicap mark are the last factors we bring into play.

7. Every one of the last 5 winners had run at least 12 times over fences. Over the last 10 years each winner had had at least 10 runs over fences – inexperienced horses find the Grand National too much, so we lose Colbert Station, Wyck Hill and Tofino Bay.

8. No horse in the past 5 years (or 10 years) has defied a weights rise of more than 10 lbs. This means that from their last winning mark to their Grand National mark there can be no more than 10lbs difference.

We lose none of the last 3 here.

Our final shortlist is:

Big Fella Thanks

Roberto Goldback

Rare Bob

Now of these 3 Big Fella Thanks has been here 3 times before and clearly doesn't stay the trip so I can't recommend backing him. But the other 2 are very backable.

Roberto Goldback – N. Henderson's only entry this year, got some good back form to add to his current season form. Bought by connections to win this race, he has clearly been trained with the Grand National in mind and comes here on the back of an excellent staying on 5^th in the Racing Post chase.

Rare Bob – D. Hughes has a good recent record in the race, the horse has had an easier season compared to last year and is off a good handicap mark. My only reservation with him is the fact that he was Brought Down last year and Unseated Rider at Aintree (on the Mildmay) the year before, so may be he doesn't enjoy the best of luck round here?

And just 1 more horse that I must give a mention to that fits all the stats except the ratings (137); Auroras Encore, loves April, will stay and jumps for fun.  Have an  EW bet on him at his current odds.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the day.

As my old mate Tony the Bookie says everybody have fun tonight, everybody Waichong Marwing tonight!